Slightly Too Early Season Awards

Ok, so there are still several games left in the 2019 regular season, but that isn’t going to keep me from saying who I think have been the best players in 2019. All the awards have been tightly contested this year, and the debates on social media concerning MVP, Rookie of the Year, etc. have all been fascinating, enlightening, and fun. With that said, let’s look at who I believe will win each award:

MVP: Elena Delle Donne, F Mystics

Delle Donne, like in her previous MVP winning season in 2015, has been the “do it all, every game” MVP in 2019. She has lifted the Mystics to a higher plane than ever before, and thus far, has proved to be the best player on the best team night after night. And even though it’s not just Delle Donne doing all the work, the entire team is playing insanely well offensively, she is the unquestionable leader of this Washington squad, and simply the best player in the league right now.

Most Improved: Leilani Mitchell, G Mercury

An absolute bounce back of a season for a player that has always been slightly underrated in my opinion, and this is even taking into consideration that she won this same award nearly a decade ago in 2010. The resurgence is due in part to Mitchell’s much larger role with the absence of Diana Taurasi. But the numbers don’t lie, and Mitchell’s stats from last year and this year are the most impressive out of any other potential winners. Averaging nearly ten more points per game than last season, and doubling her averages in nearly every other category, Mitchell is clearly the most improved player this season.

Rookie of the Year: Napheesa Collier, F Lynx

This award has been the most talked about an argued over award all season long. But if I am redoing the 2019 draft, I’m taking Collier as the first pick. Does that mean she has the same year with the Aces as she has had with the Lynx? No, but with time travel logic is the first thing that gets thrown out the window, and I’m telling you, no matter who I am I want Napheesa Collier on my team right now and for the future. She is another all around fantastic player who has the potential to lead Minnesota to a new dynasty.

6th Woman: Dearica Hamby, F Aces

Hamby has been absolutely crucial to Bill Laimbeer’s rotation in 2019, and she has relished her role off the bench and as a part time starter when A’ja Wilson was out. She is one of the candidates for Most Improved, but I like her winning this award more, because she provided the minutes and scoring, as well as rebounding that every team needs off the bench to win games.

Defensive Player: Jonquel Jones, F Sun

Jonquel Jones will win this award, but
If I’m being honest, Natasha Howard is just as likely to take home the MVP as she is to win Defensve Player of the Year. But despite having the exact same defensive rating according to the league website, I give Jones the slightest of edges due to her better defensive rebounding over Howard, as well a her better block percentage. Is Howard getting more steals? Yes. But I think the controversy surrounding her off the court issues, right or wrong, guilty or innocent costs her this award this year.

Coach of the Year: James Wade, Sky

This award is harder to pick than any other award this year. Cheryl Reeve, as always, has done an amazing job this season with an almost completely new group of young players. Dan Hughes has also taken a team that shouldn’t have played anywhere as well as they have this year and kept them in the playoffs. Mike Thibault has pushed his Mystics to even greater heights and has them on the cusp of the #1 seed and another Finals berth. Bill Laimbeer, another long time WNBA head coach has turned this Aces team into one that just barely missed the playoffs to one of the best, scariest and toughest teams in the league. But James Wade showed up to his first head coaching job and proved that he can absolutely coach in this league for years to come. He has motivated, pushed, driven, and willed his team to more wins than they have had in several years. He has changed the mentality of the Chicago Sky from underachievers to down right winners in 2019. I love what he’s done for this incredible group of players.

The Wrap Up

This was a weird season. With so many of the league’s top stars out with injuries and other commitments, we had no idea what to expect. I think the same can be said about the awards that will be handed out this year. I really have no idea what voters will decide to do in just about every category. It will be very interesting to see what ultimately transpires. Here’s wishing good luck to every candidate out there in 2019!

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2019 Season Predictions

If you follow me regularly you know I hate predictions due to their fickle, insane nature. But here we are. Best of luck to every single player and team this year. It is going to be a wild ride.

Here are my predictions for the 2019 Season:

MVP: Elena Delle Donne

Champions: Phoenix Mercury

Rookie of the Year: Katie Lou Samuelson

Most Improved: Odyssey Sims

Defensive Player: Brittney Griner

6th Woman: Emma Meesseman

Coach of the year: Nikki Collen

Some back up choices just to make it fun:

MVP: Liz Cambage

Champions: Atlanta Dream

Rookie: Alanna Smith

Most Improved: Kelsey Plum

Defensive Player: Ariel Atkins

6th Woman: Alex Bentley

Coach of the year: Brian Agler

WNBA Awards Season

With the regular season over yesterday, the WNBA moves into the playoffs, and with that, comes awards season. The Most Improved Player award is probably the one I had the most trouble with, and the most fun choosing. After crunching the numbers, I found myself with a real dilemma. Atlanta’s Elizabeth Williams improved her game averages from last season with the Sun in points, rebounds, assists, and steals (not including her vast improvement in blocks) by a whopping 228%.

The Mystics Tayler Hill improved in the same statistical categories by 112%, and the Liberty’s Sugar Rodgers, along with last year’s rookie of the year, Seattle’s Jewell Loyd, both improved by 72.5 and 73% respectively.

So, the raw numbers tell us that Elizabeth Williams is by far the most improved player of 2016, right? Well, when I also calculated their individual increases in minutes per game, I saw that Williams increased her minutes by 192%, while Hill’s minutes increased by 72.3%, Rodgers increased by 66.8%, but Loyd’s minutes only increased by 23%. And all four players are playing pretty similar minutes this year, about 30, with Williams with the most at 34 per game.

So the question became, how do I reconcile a player’s improved stat line, when they’ve had a much greater increase in minutes to do it in, especially when you compare Williams with Loyd? I wondered, well, an increase in minutes could be because they steadily improved, and so they deserved more minutes, or they simply got more minutes because of a trade or injury to a starting player. A trade was the case with Williams, as she played a backup role in Connecticut last year, but got a starting role in Atlanta’s lineup this year. Either way, I never quite figured out how to compare the stats percentages with the minutes percentages. I figured someone else has already done this for me, say with Hollingers’s PER, but I’m still not certain if this kind of stat reflects the question I was asking myself. I am by no means a stats guru, and I was always terrible at math, but the older I have gotten the more I have enjoyed statistics and crunching simple numbers. So I just decided I would divide the average percentage of stats by the player’s percentage in increased minutes and make that a ratio. Again, perhaps I’m a simpleton when it comes to stats and this is something already in existence, but bear with me. The ratios that I came up when I did the division surprised me, as Loyd, despite the more modest increase in stats, seemingly improved at a better rate, or at least did so in less time than the other 3 players:

Stats% to Minutes Increased% Ratio:

Elizabeth Williams: 1.188

Tayler Hill: 1.556

Sugar Rodgers: 1.085

Jewell Loyd: 3.108

Is this kind of ratio absurd? Does it make any sense, or no sense at all? Is it already accounted for or dismissed by some Sports Stats Guru at ESPN? I honestly have no idea. But after looking at the players’ PER numbers from last year to this year, I am still not sure if there is a correlation of some kind, or if I simply have no idea what I am talking about. Obviously in this day and age of advanced stats, we can adjust the expectations we have for a player based on PACE, based on starting and bench roles, based on position, based on so many factors, so I still don’t know what to think of ratio I came up with.

Williams PER from last year to this year went from 17.9 to 15.6, Hill went from 13.5 to 17, Rodgers went from 14.1 to 15.3, while Loyd went from 14 to 18.3. ┬áSo, maybe there is a correlation, maybe there is none at all. But in trying to reconcile the idea of a player improving less, but seemingly more with the less increased time they had to do it in, I came to the conclusion, that ultimately, I can’t fault a player like Elizabeth Williams for getting more minutes, or getting traded into a starting role on a different team. I can’t really figure out if she got more minutes because she steadily put up better numbers, or if she put up better numbers simply because she had more minutes. I can only applaud her for her vast improvement in basically every major stat category, and on both ends of the floor. So in the end, I have to pick Elizabeth Williams as Most Improved Player of 2016.

Coach of the Year, for me, goes to Brian Agler and the part that he has played in turning the Sparks around this season. Everyone has stepped up this season on this roster, but the coaching staff has to be recognised for a job well done as well. This Sparks team has in my view played above and beyond, not perhaps their talent or potential, but certainly beyond the expectations I had for them at the beginning of the season. But do I think Coach Agler will win? No, I have no doubt it will go to Cheryl Reeve, who has done just as excellent a job as Agler, and who’s team is primed and ready to tie the Houston Comets for the record 4 WNBA titles.

Sixth Woman of the Year is without a doubt going to be Jantel Lavender. She had some pretty good competition in rookie Aerial Powers of the Dallas Wings, and Shavonte Zellous of the Liberty, but she was simply outstanding off the bench for the Sparks this season.

Rookie of the Year may well be a unanimous vote with Seattle’s #1 pick Breanna Stewart. Former UConn teammate Moriah Jefferson, now of San Antonio, Chicago’s Imani Boyette, Dallas’s Aerial Powers, and Indiana’s Tiffany Mitchell all had good rookie seasons, but they are all essentially in a race for second place.

Defensive Player of the Year is a category that is a tough choice, because I have to say the Breanna Stewart, along with the ROY award, probably also deserves this one as well. Who’s lead the league in defensive rebounds? Stewart. Who was third in block shots? Stewart. Who just set the record for most defensive rebounds in a season? Stewart. What’s more important than blocks, especially blocks that simply stop play, go out of bounds and keep the ball in the other team’s end of the floor? Defensive rebounds.

That brings us to the final award category: Most Valuable Player. Who’s my pick? Nneka Ogwumike of the Los Angeles Sparks. Why? Because 6 Western Conference Player of the Week awards, 2 Western Conference Player of the Month awards, a season PER of 31.4, and an effective field goal percentage of .687, that’s why, Tina Charles. Sorry. I love you Tina, but Nneka is taking this one this year.

So those are my picks. I hope I haven’t disappointed or infuriated you too much. Stay tuned for a playoff preview!